Which generation likely has the most autistic people?

[dyl]

If I’m going to guess, I would possibly say Generation X or Millennials. Though Generation Z might have the most. Not sure, would appreciate some replies for this discussion though.

 

[dyl]

Disclaimer: This is just a opinion-based thread as there are many undiagnosed people from different generations. Thank you

 

[MC1Rcat]

I think it may be less for older people because, depending on where you are from, children were not being screened for ASD, unless they had very obvious symptoms.

 

[MNAus]

You're going to get a lot of subjective answers, mine is no different. My take is "it's difficult to tell" because GenX and older basically didn't get diagnosed. I think most experts tend to believe there's an increase in the diagnosis of ASD, rather than an increase in incidence.

One point that's worth thinking on is whether that's not only because we got better at recognising it, but also because the environment has changed to make life more challenging for people with ASD, and therefore more in need of help.

It's only a point of view, but for my feeling as practical pressures subsided (where ASD folk may have felt more parity with their peers) they've been replaced by political and social pressures (where ASDers may be more challenged). It wouldn't surprise me if people who might previously have been seen as slightly odd but doing OK are now really struggling because, in short, society has become much more about politics, gossip and cliques.

 

[VictorR]

I guess the first question is where we draw the line for each of those generations.

If we use the dates and numbers in the chart below

Source: U.S. population share by generation 2022 | Statista

Then it'd be Millennials simply because they are, by a very small margin, the largest group, and I'm assuming that prevalence rates haven't really changed over time (though we have gotten better at identifying autistic persons).

If we're looking at diagnosed or combined diagnosed and self-identified, I'd say Gen Z, because by the second half of the generation, screening in the school system and general awareness have become more common, and so they're the first generation for which the majority with a diagnosis received it (or started their journey towards receiving it) before adulthood.

While some Millennials received their diagnosis as a child or teen, most of those diagnosed or self-identified have done so in their 20s or 30s, and quite often during the process of learning how to support their autistic child.

 

[Tony Ramirez]

I'm Generation X born in 1977 and did not get diagnosed until I dropped out of college my second year but I always thought there was something wrong with me, that I had some of what my sister had but I did not know what I had.

Mt sister, millennium born in 1985 fully autistic was diagnosed when she was three.

 

[Crossbreed]

The Millennials & following have seen an unprecedented explosion of ASD2s & 3s. ASD1s have always been here and were not counted prior to DSM-4. Even now, 1s are not counted in the public support (special ed. & beyond) crisis.*

The camps that I follow believe that these 2s & 3s are injured 1s (not injured NTs), and there would be no such a crisis if that injury was identified & averted. The solution is not to abort autistic babies, but to keep them from being injured in the first place.

*The sheer numbers of ASD2s/3s is outpacing the capabilities of local support services to accommodate them.

Below are California's ASD2/3 numbers,...

2014-CA DDS Autism Cases By Birth Year

2019-CA DDS Autism Cases By Birth Year

 

[MC1Rcat]

The Millennials & following have an unprecedented explosion of ASD2s & 3s. ASD1s have always been here and were not counted prior to DSM-4. Even now, 1s are not counted in the public support (special ed. & beyond) crisis.*

The camps that I follow believe that these 2s & 3s are injured 1s (not injured NTs), and there would not be such a crisis if that injury was identified & averted. The solution is not to abort autistic babies, but to keep them from being injured in the first place.

*The sheer numbers of ASD2s/3s is outpacing the capabilities of local support services to accommodate them.

Below are California's ASD2/3 numbers,...

2014-CA DDS Autism Cases By Birth Year

2019-CA DDS Autism Cases By Birth Year

Crossbreed, I am new to ASD theories. Can you fill me in or share a link so I can learn about what injures ASD 1...and how this leads to ASD 2 & 3. Thanks

 

[Au Naturel]

The generation that has the most autistic people will be the one that has the most people.

Now, the generation that has the highest percentage of diagnosed autistic people will be the most recent. The definition of autism has slowly shifted over the last several decades. Many autistic kids were diagnosed with something else or tossed into the generic group of nerds and geeks and "retarded." You had to have a severe case, or the odds of being diagnosed were slim to none. Over time milder and milder cases were folded into the numbers. Welcome to my generation and probably most of GenX.

Probably even more important is that autism is something we now look for. We did not look for it at all when I was a kid. The more you look for something, the more likely you are to find it. Since autism diagnosis is still really just an educated option, opinions have to be educated and that process is ongoing. It is nowhere near 100% detection yet, so I expect the numbers to continue to increase.

Since Texas wants to replace trained school counselors with chaplains, that may cause a drop in autism diagnoses.

Other factors that may be influencing the rates of autism include increased levels of maternal obesity and increased age of the parents, esp. the father.

Here's an interesting video on the subject:

 

[Crossbreed]

You had to have a severe case, or the odds of being diagnosed were slim to none.

Severe cases did not occur as often as they do now. Even with a wrong diagnosis, they would have occupied the same number of special ed. chairs that they do now, which was not the case. The increased special ed. caseload cannot be attributed to misdiagnosis.

Otherwise, your take is in agreement with my model,
that there may have been just as many undiagnosed ASD1s,
but not so many received a post-natal injury* responsible for an increased severity level.

*It is that injury that was rare before 1979.

 

[Raggamuffin]

I'd say, given a growing population - both diagnosed and undiagnosed people will increase with each generation.

Ed

 

[Neonatal RRT]

I've posted this before. A summary of the Autism Genome Project. What it suggests is that there may be more epigenetic and "de novo" mutations in the more recent generations, not inherited, not part of the sperm and the egg. Which suggests that "something" is triggering intrauterine genetic "switches" more frequently now-a-days, as compared to the types of genetic mutations found in previous generations. One thing is for sure, we know THAT something is happening, we just don't know WHY.

 

[Alexej]

The question is an interesting one, but requires that folks are diagnosed.
Since I was not diagnosed till later life >60 any statistics made before my diagnosis will be wrong.

The question certainly is valid, but it is not so easy to give an easy answer to.

 

[Crossbreed]

It is not autism which is the epidemic, just its severe co-morbid conditions.
They were very rare. Now, they are overwhelming (with no sign of slowing down).

 

[kenaij]

Realistically it should be the same for all generations. But I think the younger you look the most chances you have of having people with autism that are being properly diagnosed. On one side because we know what to look for better. But on the other side because our world has gotten a boost in external triggers. Therefor the behaviours, primarily for higher masking autistic people, are far more noticable. That is also hugely why a lot of adults now get a diagnosis. More inputs to struggle with, so more output that gives signs of autism.

 

[Neonatal RRT]

Autism: Rates in Children Reach New Highs, Experts Explain Why

More children than ever before are being diagnosed for autism. Additionally, Black and Hispanic children are being diagnosed with autism at higher rates than white children, according to new data from the CDC. The increased prevalence of autism can be attributed, in part, to greater awareness...

www.healthline.com

 

[Vindiesel]

Only reason "autistic" people are increasing over the years is simply the increase in knowledge/increase in testing reporting of the particular degrees of autism coupled with a decrease and or denigration of the "therapy is for crazy people that need locked up in an institution" and other ignorant statements towards autism/testing or simply labeling people with adhd or add without having the training in autism and its traits/mechanisms.

Plus people into their 30s 40s 50s and 60s at this point in time have no incentive to get screened or diagnosed since their severity of said traits do not hinder them on a level that needs additional support. (not all of course)

So in retrospect, to point a finger at a particular generation as "the most autistic people" would be pure conjecture.

Older generations sucked it up and suppressed there issues also they didn't speak of it or knew why they felt different then everyone and the new generation to some degree is wearing it proud and wearing autism merch to bring awareness which to some degree is great on the other end just conjures up additional ignorance in some contexts for people to use additional labels with a myopic understanding of the vast spectrum. You can corner people with logic but you cant beat ignorance out of them even with utter factual remedies that are easily found online with sources. Pick your battles wisely. I tend to lean to "keep it to yourself and use it to your advantage and work on the disadvantages" vs " tell everyone and sing it from the mountain tops." That's just my particular proclivity.

 

[dyl]

Thank you for all the responses, I understand this is quite the controversial question. I agree with some of the responses, but a few of these looked like they were going to turn argumentative. Please keep this post civil, thanks.

 

[Tom]

Some really good responses and info above.

Just to add my opinion, I think pesticides are one of the main prime suspects for the initial creation of the genetic variations that result in autism. Once you have them you can pass them down but that does not explain any increase as far as percent of population - if you accept early studies determining that those on the spectrum have fewer children statistically then NTs.

In this theory, increase in autism cases would roughly follow pesticide use. I should add that the typical scenerio expressed in this theory is that it is your mother's exposure to pesticide that causes the changes/variations.

As pesticide use differs significantly from one country to the next you might expect to see this reflected in the statistics but this is hampered greatly by the difference in diagnosis criteria (or even diagnosing at all) in countries. This is an interesting list of counties listing their pesticide use, not by tonnage but by the density of use (ie how many kilos of pesticide per hectare, etc).

Pesticide use by country

 

[Au Naturel]

Severe cases did not occur as often as they do now. Even with a wrong diagnosis, they would have occupied the same number of special ed. chairs that they do now, which was not the case. The increased special ed. caseload cannot be attributed to misdiagnosis.

Otherwise, your take is in agreement with my model,
that there may have been just as many undiagnosed ASD1s,
but not so many received a post-natal injury* responsible for an increased severity level.

*It is that injury that was rare before 1979.

I think you are wrong about that.

If a child has post-natal brain damage that makes their autism worse, that's easy enough to see in a brain scan. I see no evidence of a massive epidemic of post-natal brain damage. It would affect nonautistic children as much as autistic ones. It would show up in vast numbers.

According to CDC, the percentage of autistic children with intellectual disability has decreased from about 60% in 1980 to 30% in 2020. Part of this is because more borderline cases have gotten diagnosed. But also, most schools in the past would toss a kid with severe intellectual disabilities in the special ed bucket without any further diagnosis. Unless it was obvious, like Down syndrome, you were just "retarded, cause undetermined." I'm sure that still happens in many more backward parts of the country.

It is also probable that the standards for getting into special ed have changed. Many more children are eligible for special ed because the disability doesn't need to be as severe. I subbed in special ed classes for autistic children who would never have been considered for it in the past. They would have been written off as generic problem children and kept in the general population. So yes, the caseload has increased quite dramatically due to changing attitudes regarding who belongs in special ed and laws forcing schools to recognize autism specifically.

According to the US CDC, autism diagnoses have increased 5-fold since 2000. That's a matter of definition, acceptance of the diagnosis, and detection. That number will continue to increase as we better detect girls with autism, as fewer traits are required to get you diagnosed as on the spectrum, and as screening becomes more common. It is still far from universal.

Data and Statistics on Autism Spectrum Disorder | CDC

About 1.7% of 8-year-old children in 11 communities in the US were identified with autism in 2014. See more autism data.

www.cdc.gov