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Irma in south Florida

Sportster said:
I just checked and it looks like Irma has shifted west, so the entire state of Florida looks as though it's going to get hit hard. It also looks as though we're going to get more weather from it than previously forecast. This thing is so big and moving in such an odd way that they can't accurately forecast what it will do. One thing that is certain is it is going to get dicey for a lot of people.
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This is one frustration to me watching the Weather Channel. Indeed, the storm track graphically depicted on tv has shifted west somewhat. In fact I was astonished to see move sufficiently enough that it appears that Miami and perhaps all the way to West Palm Beach is now "clear" of most of the storm. Which could be quite good news considering the potential for property damage given how developed and affluent some of those areas are.

But a simple question. Just how truly accurate are such graphical depictions in the first place?

Makes me wonder if this gives me false hope that this storm track may actually continue to shift westward. Though if that happened, while it might miss most of western Florida it would probably pickup speed again over open water and then wherever it lands on the coast could be worse. It's just frustrating wondering what is actually going to happen given the dire nature of this hurricane in general.
 
Sportster said:
That would be horrible if it crossed Florida, went into the Gulf, and kept on going toward Texas.
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Agreed. Landfall if this particular storm were to regenerate over the gulf would be even worse. Just the idea that this storm will likely hit at cat 4 levels makes me cringe. With such windspeeds the property damage will be more indicative of tornado destruction, compounded even worse by a storm surge of a minimum of five feet high. But this does seem inevitable for the Florida Keys. One can only hope that no one there elected to ride this storm out in that particular location.
 
Sportster said:
That would be horrible if it crossed Florida, went into the Gulf, and kept on going toward Texas. I've often wondered if they could drop a MOAB into the center of one while it was still out at sea to disrupt it to the point of dissipating.
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Texas? I seriously hope not. The last thing this state needs is another disaster on their hands after Harvey tore up the coastline and dumped feet of rain into Houston.

Even hearing about Irma and seeing the predicted paths makes me shudder...so now Miami, Tampa and/or the surrounding areas are next? Given the recent strike by Harvey, I hope the response times from emergency management and other crews are quick enough, if not quicker, to prevent a bigger catastrophe this time around.
 
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wight said:
This website has the storm track maps and a bunch of other information directly from the Hurricane Center.

2 day uncertainty for track center is 50 miles, @Judge

Hurricane & Tropical Cyclone Details
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I'm just wondering if that 50 mile distance plus or minus might evoke a shift westward enough to lesson the blow to Florida's southeast coast. Probably the only optimistic thought I can see in the equation at the moment. Between population density and real estate values there's a lot of loss potential if the hurricane hits the east coast hard. Which still may be quite likely.

Unfortunately both tracking models seem to concur with one another at this point. Diminishing much hope for more optimistic results pertaining to the actual landfall.

Addentum: Looks like they just addressed my concerns. That the east coast will still be severely impacted even with this apparent westward shift. Wind fields, onshore flows...bottom line is that it sounds like most of Florida's peninsula is going to get whacked. :(
 
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Looks like they're now emphasizing a greater possibility of storm surge in the Tampa Bay area....5 to 8 feet.
 
The thing is that Irma is big enough that ALL of Florida is getting hit in some form. All coasts of Florida face a chance of flooding, regardless of which side Irma focuses on.
 
It finally made a turn north this evening and unfortunately for me the eye is predicted to go right over Tampa Bay as that is where I live. The wind is what will destroy. My zone is a no evac and no storm surge. An elderly friend 91 years old called this morning not knowing what to do. He lives in a mobile home with no family or close friends. The man that owns the house gave him permission to come on in. This is not going to be a fun night. Hope the house can stand that force wind. The power will likely go out and torrential rains will flood the streets and maybe even get high enough to come in under the doors.
It's too late to leave. No gasoline or stores will be open until the storm passes and then only as they can. The shelters are full and all in the no evac zones with hopefully sturdy houses are under curfew now. It will be very hot with no electric. Event of a lifetime.
This is possibly the last update. Will be on as I can.
 
Thing I can't believe: the NBC affiliate in West Palm Beach is still airing commercials. (The ABC affiliate in Tampa stopped that around noon yesterday.)
 
I can't help but wonder with the storm track moving further to the west, just how much of a false sense of security this might have created for any number of those Floridians on their east coast. Seems the Weather Channel is struggling to emphasize how dangerous conditions continue to be all across the entire peninsula.

Just heard one of those construction gantry cranes mounted on the skyline collapsed downtown Miami.
 
Looks right now with the eyewall over Naples the wind speed is 115 mph (cat 3).
 
Sportster said:
Forgot to add, but my area is now under a tropical storm watch and several counties nearby are under warnings. That's amazing, because it hasn't arrived at Tampa yet.
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Another reason why the scale of this storm makes considering only the inner tracking pointless. Looks grim on both sides of Florida, let alone the upper reaches of this huge storm well beyond Florida itself.
 
Sportster said:
data=t8yUAxJWIRhCPQHtudSXW7db_2DXYVI_Knlx8MAn_vbnhderdohf6WnS_CsfkPS2A0g0QLxfrL9RNW9BA9e-sgVpNo0xPFN1Hvwk-H1yFWgb6wAkSG65vMeo_8viD01K_cVcSi7ptowU-0gIx35uMMKDoKT8YVkvZ5mhjLiix2eWwsZDyzAllcw9YJlcnVA4_QHHYtMK7TDHxKxSmtvvoQy3uEMrM54y3ygI0H8rxZbC06w

Hurricane Local Statement
Northern Alabama
STORM INFORMATION: - About 730 miles south-southeast of Huntsville AL - 25.0N 81.5W - Storm Intensity 130 mph - Movement North or 350 degrees at 9 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ...
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Let's hope that by the time it reaches you, wind speeds are lower the 30 mph. Though no telling how torrential the rainfall may still be. Take care.
 
Sportster said:
Thanks! Anything we get will be nothing compared to those poor folks down there. I'll definitely have to bring in the flag and move the porch furniture. As for rain, we don't need any more. Everything is still soaked. The last time it rained everything flooded. Even my laundry room had about a half inch of water on the floor and I'm at the top of the hill.
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Just heard on the Weather Channel that the water level in Naples, Florida has risen three feet in just eighteen minutes. :eek:

However they just downgraded Irma to a cat 2 hurricane, 110 mph. This is good.

Looks like the stronger bands of the storm system are just beginning to reach the Tampa area.
 
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The eye is moving up I-75 right now.
So far here in Tampa Bay it is not bad.
The worst is predicted for tonight.
Wind sheer is breaking it up also.
So maybe won't be too bad.
All bridges across Tampa Bay are closed and we
are under a curfew for the night.
It has been worse for the east coast really.
More tornados and power outages.
Hoping for the best for the whole state.
Will certainly know by morning as it is scheduled to
hit Tampa Bay in the night.
 
Has anyone heard from SusanLR?
She promised me she would say she was okay.
We were PM... Just worried about her.
I will also leave a PM for her.

She thought they were all clear and the storm tracked too far West and it went right over where she is...
I just want her to be ok...

I fully understand there are still power outages and stuff. Its just getting way off into the week and I was hoping she would pop up.
 
Fridgemagnetman said:
A lot of counties in central Florida expected to be out till Sunday evening.
Duke energy have updates.
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Port Aransas in Texas said 'don't sleep in your house at night they still have a curfew ,still restoring power ,still need :donations of:rakes ,cleaning supplies other things ,don't need clothing ,bedding that's diverted elsewhere.
Don't sleep on the beach! brave to want to try.
 
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