Has anyone else here tried currency trading?

[JoeK]

A couple decades ago, when online currency trading became possible I checked it out. At the time I decided that if I needed to divest myself of my few remaining assets, it might be a little quicker than using $100 bills for toilet paper but not as much fun.

Back in May I did a little more research and decided to give it a try. It has a horrible reputation due to people completely unsuited for the job leaping in with the idea they're going to parley pocket change into millions overnight. The trading environment, especially the online trading environment, is extremely stressful for people with a NT mindset. Being AS or HFA may actually be an asset.

After a couple months trading demo accounts I "went live". I'm still at a level serious traders would call dabbling but the job seems to be tailor made for me. Is anyone else into this?

 

[clg114]

I fall into the group of people that are "unsuited for the job". Back when Iraq was first liberated, the new government printed new currency. This government was supposed to be backed by the US. I thought that currency would go way up in value, so I bought several thousand dinar. Well, we all know how well that government has done. Lesson learned, I will leave currency trading to those who know what they are doing.

 

[JoeK]

I fall into the group of people that are "unsuited for the job". Back when Iraq was first liberated, the new government printed new currency. This government was supposed to be backed by the US. I thought that currency would go way up in value, so I bought several thousand dinar. Well, we all know how well that government has done. Lesson learned, I will leave currency trading to those who know what they are doing.

Actually I'd describe you as the victim of a classic marketing sucker punch. You were never exposed to the job, just sold a "once in a lifetime" shot at profiting from a "unique" opportunity with an oddball currency.

Right now I trade the eur/usd pair. I use my supply of dollars to buy euros from people who want the dollars more and sell euros to people who don't want dollars. That's it, that's all. I don't have a secret decoder ring. There's no super sophisticated trading software. I don't read tea leaves or tarot.

Will the price of euros go up? Yes! How much? Don't know. When? Sometime.

Will the price go down. Yup. How much? No idea. When? Can't say.

Will I make money? Sure thing! Will I lose money? That too.

Will I make more than I lose? That's the plan.

 

[wanderer03]

A couple decades ago, when online currency trading became possible I checked it out. At the time I decided that if I needed to divest myself of my few remaining assets, it might be a little quicker than using $100 bills for toilet paper but not as much fun.

Back in May I did a little more research and decided to give it a try. It has a horrible reputation due to people completely unsuited for the job leaping in with the idea they're going to parley pocket change into millions overnight. The trading environment, especially the online trading environment, is extremely stressful for people with a NT mindset. Being AS or HFA may actually be an asset.

After a couple months trading demo accounts I "went live". I'm still at a level serious traders would call dabbling but the job seems to be tailor made for me. Is anyone else into this?

I wish I could understand financial matters but I'm unable. I tried getting even simple books on investing and my head was left spinning and utterly confused.

 

[JoeK]

I wish I could understand financial matters but I'm unable. I tried getting even simple books on investing and my head was left spinning and utterly confused.

Oh brother! I have sooo been there.

99% of the books on the subject are packed with some whiz bang strategy for determining what is a good price to buy and sell. The simple truth is almost any strategy will work well enough to sell a boat load of books. What you need to keep in mind is that writing is less rewarding than trading. If his system was so great you'd never hear about it. He'd be too busy trading to write the book.

One of the few good books I've found is "Trading in the Zone" by Douglas. I don't think there's a chart or formula anywhere in it. There's a pretty good summary here. https://t2u.s3.amazonaws.com/Summary_Trading_in_the_Zone.pdf

Even if you never trade it has a load of interesting and useful ideas.

 

[clg114]

The simple truth is almost any strategy will work well enough to sell a boat load of books. What you need to keep in mind is that writing is less rewarding than trading. If his system was so great you'd never hear about it. He'd be too busy trading to write the book.


You got that right!

 

[Etzelaire]

The thing is about peering up with two or three people and put the same amount each so you all decide upon the money of the group and everyone is watching each other's trades. Different points of view and specialisation are the best weapon.

 

[Etzelaire]

Btw, i am watching closely the market specially the euro/dollar looking for the right time to get in on a long period position.

 

[Ste11aeres]

Oh brother! I have sooo been there.

99% of the books on the subject are packed with some whiz bang strategy for determining what is a good price to buy and sell. The simple truth is almost any strategy will work well enough to sell a boat load of books. What you need to keep in mind is that writing is less rewarding than trading. If his system was so great you'd never hear about it. He'd be too busy trading to write the book.

Yep. Reminds me of an article I came across about how hard it is to find a job with an phd in ENglish. It turned out, the whole purpose of the article was for the advertisement at the bottom asking you to buy the book on How to Find a Job With a Phd in English.
If the guy was so good at finding a job, why wasn't he busy working at that job instead of writing those articles and a book? BTW, the guy himself didn't have a phd. He'd dropped out of school before getting one, because he decided the phd would be useless for getting a job. Well, it didn't look like NOT having a phd was working out any better for him.

 

[JoeK]

Btw, i am watching closely the market specially the euro/dollar looking for the right time to get in on a long period position.

I wish I could offer meaningful advice. At this stage of the game I'm fully occupied confusing myself. Confusing other people is a little beyond my reach.

 

[Flinty]

I wish I could understand financial matters but I'm unable. I tried getting even simple books on investing and my head was left spinning and utterly confused.

The layman doesn't need to know as much as the expert.

Most people are just fine investing in mutual funds. Past performance does not predict future returns. A mutual fund protects you from volatility to a certain extent - this has been mathematically proven. Buy and hold is the best strategy for most. Don't invest money you can't afford to lose. You don't have to wait until February to make a purchase to an IRA/RRSP. Monthly contributions can be your friend. A good financial advisor will give you a proper risk assessment which will lead to suitable investing for you. Bank tellers are generally not good financial advisors.

Currency trading is a perfect zero-sum game - if someone gains $100, that means that there are $100 of losses out there somewhere. Period.

 

[JoeK]

The layman doesn't need to know as much as the expert.

Currency trading is a perfect zero-sum game - if someone gains $100, that means that there are $100 of losses out there somewhere. Period.

You make that sound like a bad thing. Perhaps it is if you think trading is an investment. It's not, or at least I don't see it that way. That's one of the reasons I launched this thread here rather than some FX forum. I'm discovering that mind set and perceptions are a *huge* part of trading successfully. There's at least a little anecdotal evidence that some of the traits associated with AS or HFA are actually an asset in this very specialized form of commerce.

I'm in business operating Joe's euro store. I buy additional inventory whenever I can get it at what I consider a good price. I don't ask the seller how much he paid for it or expected to sell it for when he bought it. When the current price allows me to move some of my inventory at a profit I do so. I couldn't care less about why the buyer thinks the current price is attractive or their future plans for the purchase. I never even meet the buyers and sellers. The transaction is handled through a brokerage.

Many of the people buying currency are not investing, at least in the conventional sense. Anyone doing business internationally often has to settle transactions in a currency other than their own. It's in their best interest to lock in an attractive price when they can or at least cost average the exchange over time to keep from taking a hit due to market volatility.