Jumping to conclusions

[Jonn]

We all jump to conclusions from time to time, but some people have a persistent problem in this regard, spending little time pondering before making decisions. For example, about 20 per cent of people spend more time planning their holidays than planning their financial futures. In psychology, making decisions based on very little evidence is called a cognitive bias and is often part of a larger defective pattern in behaviour and thinking. This phenomenon is clearly explained by Carmen Sanchez and David Dunning, who research human misbeliefs, overconfidence and decision-making, in Scientific American, (October 2021).

Jumping to conclusions … the inside track on reasoning and decisions

The merits of spending a little time on reflection before making that decision

www.irishtimes.com

 

[Jonn]

Sanchez and Dunning tell us there are two pathways of thought — automatic and controlled. Automatic thinking pops up ideas easily and spontaneously. Controlled thinking requires conscious reasoning and effort. The researchers found that those who jump to conclusions and those who think things through are equally confronted by automatic thinking but those who jump to conclusions do not engage in controlled reasoning to the same degree as those not so prone to jump to conclusions. Controlled thinking helps to counterbalance the biases introduced by automatic thinking.

Jumping to conclusions … the inside track on reasoning and decisions

The merits of spending a little time on reflection before making that decision

www.irishtimes.com

 

[Neonatal RRT]

There is something to be said about the virtues of not letting one's mouth get ahead of one's brain.

 

[Knower of nothing]

We have the tendency to jump to conclusions as a method of trying out the many plausible scenarios we come up with and then retroactively seeing if they fit. There's nothing inherently wrong with it as long as you don't stop thinking once there. It's an effective way of quickly cycling through many possibilities in the absence of further information so that you can either settle for the most likely one or prepare for multiple at the same time.

 

[1ForAll]

There is a reason why many persons cannot make informed decisions and it depends on the situation whether one factor is involved or many. For instance, those with executive function and/or cognitive difficulties can have problems with regards to judgement, planning, prioritization, organization, details and in the initiation and completion of tasks. As well, anyone who has severe issues related to impatience/ impulsiveness, attention/concentration, procrastination, or with regards to black and white thinking or who has any other condition or trait involving extreme anxiety, fear, anger, lack of trust/suspiciousness, an inability to pick up on nonverbal cues or other issues, they have could have difficulties seeing all the benefits and consequences of some of their decisions, if not a strong hyperfocus of interest, thus at times making the wrong decision. In my case, I am "now" the opposite there. I nitpick every detail, weigh every fact versus opinion, look beneath the surface, have much patience, look for any hidden things and inconsistencies, research things when not enough info is given, consider all perspectives/pathways etc. before making any decision.

 

[All-Rounder]

Jumping to conclusions … the inside track on reasoning and decisions

The merits of spending a little time on reflection before making that decision

www.irishtimes.com

Overconfidence comes with a lack of questioning and thinking.

For example a dog which is overconfident but doesn't know the world of humans, and starts being aggressive towards owner's friends, ends up making a big error, whilst when a dog thinks instead of reacting and seeks the owner's approval by looking at their eyes because it admits it doesn't understand when it acknowledges it's been wrong before, through corrections, then it is not overconfident, it is offering trust in the right place and it works out, it also becomes confident because it knows that the owner has the ability to communicate and take care of concerns that are linked to humanity and life in society.

Admitting he doesn't know it all ends up helping everyone. Same when the owner seeks the dog to understand another fellow dog's behaviour and issues and uses it for training.

 

[All-Rounder]

There is a reason why many persons cannot make informed decisions and it depends on the situation whether one factor is involved or many. For instance, those with executive function and/or cognitive difficulties can have problems with regards to judgement, planning, prioritization, organization, details and in the initiation and completion of tasks. As well, anyone who has severe issues related to impatience/ impulsiveness, attention/concentration, procrastination, or with regards to black and white thinking or who has any other condition or trait involving extreme anxiety, fear, anger, lack of trust/suspiciousness, an inability to pick up on nonverbal cues or other issues, they have could have difficulties seeing all the benefits and consequences of some of their decisions, if not a strong hyperfocus of interest, thus at times making the wrong decision. In my case, I am "now" the opposite there. I nitpick every detail, weigh every fact versus opinion, look beneath the surface, have much patience, look for any hidden things and inconsistencies, research things when not enough info is given, consider all perspectives/pathways etc. before making any decision.

Some of those issues don't impair me from thinking: exec function, attention, impulsiveness, extreme anxiety, black and white thinking, suspiciousness, blindness to consequence. My take is that all humans have the capacity to think (except intellectual disability), they just were often not taught to do it. Humans can be trained. But instead they're brainwashed by society instead of helped to think for their own.

 

[Jonn]

We have the tendency to jump to conclusions as a method of trying out the many plausible scenarios we come up with and then retroactively seeing if they fit. There's nothing inherently wrong with it as long as you don't stop thinking once there. It's an effective way of quickly cycling through many possibilities in the absence of further information so that you can either settle for the most likely one or prepare for multiple at the same time.

Heuristics are fine, but not if they are set in concrete, agreed.

I have been in many situations where people jump to conclusions due to their personal biases and then "bunker down" and protect their POV as though their life depended on it.
Very rarely will they admit to a mistake in judgement.
Once again, this is not the traditional autistic way of doing things.
I have little time for people like this.

<rant on>
What I have difficulty with is how so many people have so little understanding/appreciation of integrity and credibility.
I have a major problem when I am being misrepresented because of the damage via character assassination.
And if there is a clique involved who embraces groupthink, no rational argument will get through to them.
It will be another situation of not being able to reason with unreasonable people.
It is then time to simply walk away, shaking my head.
<rant off>

 

[Jonn]

There is a reason why many persons cannot make informed decisions and it depends on the situation whether one factor is involved or many. For instance, those with executive function and/or cognitive difficulties can have problems with regards to judgement, planning, prioritization, organization, details and in the initiation and completion of tasks.

I have pretty bad executive dysfunction, yet I seem to excel in waiting for the facts to come in before making a firm opinion.

As well, anyone who has severe issues related to impatience/ impulsiveness, attention/concentration, procrastination, or with regards to black and white thinking or who has any other condition or trait involving extreme anxiety, fear, anger, lack of trust/suspiciousness,

Agreed.
In a real-time situation, I have difficulty coping with information overload.
However, the context I am using is communicating via an internet/forum situation.

BTW, I have found that caffeine has an enormous effect on me, and now that I am largely off it, my emotional stability is strong.

In my case, I am "now" the opposite there. I nitpick every detail, weigh every fact versus opinion, look beneath the surface, have much patience, look for any hidden things and inconsistencies, research things when not enough info is given, consider all perspectives/pathways etc. before making any decision.

Simply waiting for the facts to come in is difficult for some people.
I find that quite strange.
But then again, the people I am thinking of have an agenda to protect.

 

[Neonatal RRT]

Heuristics are fine, but not if they are set in concrete, agreed.

I have been in many situations where people jump to conclusions due to their personal biases and then "bunker down" and protect their POV as though their life depended on it.
Very rarely will they admit to a mistake in judgement.
Once again, this is not the traditional autistic way of doing things.
I have little time for people like this.

<rant on>
What I have difficulty with is how so many people have so little understanding/appreciation of integrity and credibility.
I have a major problem when I am being misrepresented because of the damage via character assassination.
And if there is a clique involved who embraces groupthink, no rational argument will get through to them.
It will be another situation of not being able to reason with unreasonable people.
It is then time to simply walk away, shaking my head.
<rant off>

Intellectual laziness in some cases,..."I do have the ability to pause,...take in information,...consider context and perspective,...recognize bias and thinking errors. BUT,...it's just a lot easier to NOT do that and let my brain go where ever the wind blows it." Intellectual ignorance in other cases,...in other words, they literally have not been taught HOW to think. All they know is "System 1" thinking,..."Say what's on your mind and damn the consequences,...you know, ...straight talk." It's crazy, but there is a segment of our voting populous that actually sees this as a positive attribute in their politicians,...idiots.

 

[Jonn]

Overconfidence comes with a lack of questioning and thinking.

Agreed.
The Dunning/Kruger effect.

I have seen this many times over the years.
I find it curious how putting a "sheriff's badge" on a pumpkin can suddenly increase its own perceived wisdom.

And I find it annoying when a young person tries to "teach his grandfather to suck eggs".

 

[Jonn]

Intellectual laziness in some cases,..."I do have the ability to pause,...take in information,...consider context and perspective,...recognize bias and thinking errors. BUT,...it's just a lot easier to NOT do that and let my brain go where ever the wind blows it."

In these cases, they lose their credibility through a lack of due diligence.
Apparently, "credibility" is of little importance for some.

Intellectual ignorance in other cases,...in other words, they literally have not been taught HOW to think. All they know is "System 1" thinking,..."Say what's on your mind and damn the consequences,...you know, ...straight talk."

Often, this is simply a case of younger people not having enough life experience to know what they are doing.
Perhaps they need to find the right sort of company that is more interested in sharing knowledge than dominating others.

Some go through their entire life in this unenlightened state. I find it difficult to believe most don't have the capacity to improve their rational thinking skills.

It's crazy, but there is a segment of our voting populous that actually sees this as a positive attribute in their politicians,...idiots.

What concerns me in some situations is the active process of encouraging people to move away from rational thought and embrace their "gut feeling".
Important decisions in life should not be dependent on "Type 1 Thinking", surely.