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Handicapping 2020 US Election

Discussion in 'Politics Discussion' started by SteveNomad, Nov 8, 2019.

  1. SteveNomad

    SteveNomad Active Member

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    Okay, how do you think the 2020 US Presidential election might work out? How might Trump, presuming him to still be in office and nominated by the Republican Party, win...or lose? How might it turn out?
    Okay, up front, I am not a fan of Trump? So, you could see this as " How can he be defeated " Or, " How can he win again? ", if you like him:eek:.
     
  2. puzzlingbill

    puzzlingbill Definitely Someone

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    I see no point in speculating at this time because the situation is so volatile. With public impeachment activities upcoming, the situation could change drastically. At the moment you couldn't make anything more than a wild guess.
     
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  3. Mia

    Mia Well-Known Member V.I.P Member

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    No idea as a Canadian watching here and there. Recently Bloomberg had decided to run. So it's interesting to consider what may come about with that.
     
  4. AloneNotLonely

    AloneNotLonely Well-Known Member

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    He has a much bigger chance of winning than losing, unless the economy collapses before the voting starts. He got elected based on nothing but hot air and boisterous posing, simply because the economy was doing so bad under the Democrats. The madman got elected and suddenly there was 4 years of huge economic boom.

    There's no way to beat that, something seriously weird has to happen for all of the economic centrist swing voters to go for any of the crazy commies being pushed by the Democrats. It's probably one of the most predictable election outcomes ever.

    Hope you are prepared for another 4 years of Trump.
     
  5. mw2530

    mw2530 Well-Known Member

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    My guess is that most people who voted for Trump in 2016 will vote for him again in 2020. I could be wrong, but many Trump voters will support him regardless (unless there is some sort of major event). I personally believe Trump won in large part due to Trump tapping into the feelings of many in America who feel that they are unheard and underrepresented. Mass media has done a poor job of covering day to day problems most American's face as well as day to day achievements they accomplish. Undervaluing hard working Americans. He wasn't afraid to point out obvious things such as media bias which is hard to deny. Many Americans are tired of being labeled as racist or sexist simply due to their political leanings. Or that pursing wealth means you are a cold person. Or that corporations are evil. Many American's were and are tired of hearing these same lines. Sure, some of these negatives exist, but generalizing across groups of people starts to anger people that are innocent; being accused or being portrayed in manners that are simply false. Mass media coverage since Trump was elected has only reinforced these deeply held feeling by many American's in my opinion. Same can be said regarding the democrats unwillingness to cooperate with Trump in any fashion whatsoever. Their behavior has reinforced the thoughts of many. I believe the media coverage and democrat behaviors play as big a role as anything in why Trump was elected and why he may very well be re-elected.
     
  6. SteveNomad

    SteveNomad Active Member

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    ...Trump had a Republican majority in both houses for his first two years. How were the Democrats to blamez then, for his lack of accomplishments during that period? As far as " not cooperating " with the opposing party, do you remember the Republican House leader who announced, early during Obama's time, " Our main goal is to see that Barrick Obama is a ine_term president "? For " media bias ", well there's always fox News, or I suppose Redstate and the like, practically worshipping Trump...although Trump has complained about Fox too recently, when some of their personalities have criticized him and Fox polls have had unfavorable results for him.bSo do you believe along with Trump that the press that doesn't agree with him is the " Enemies if the People "? Tump has repeatedly claimed that the popular vote margin in 2016 that his Democratic opponent has was 100% fake voted (He claimed that about the New Hampshire primary too) - Do you agree with him? He put together this ' commission on voter fraud " to try and back him up - and almost every Republican state and county district attorney in the country responded to that with a big ' Yaawwnn ". I suppose they were part of the ' deep state " out to get him, as he announced frequently?
    Did you happen to read how the bogus " charity " he ran was just forced in abkawsuit to pay money back that they spent for their own purposes after claiming it was for charity? This includedba supposed ' fundraiser for veterans ":that the proceeds from went 100% into his pocket, until one of those ' media bias " reporters found out about it? He also spent $10,000 from the " charity ''s proceeds on a giant painting of himself!
    Then, there was his Trump University rip-off - Before he signed a settlement in it, he announced that judge (who was from Indiana) was"' a Mexican " biased against him! Then, there was involvement with the " birther ' thing against Obama...During that, he announced that his lawyers on the birther thing had found out things that ' You wouldn't believe! ". We're still waiting for them. When Jeff Sessions was his SG, he attacked him for following lawyers' rules and recusing himself from a case that Sessions had been involved in. aNow, he supposedly wanted William Barr to hold a press conference announcing that Trump was innocent - That was one thing even Barr would not do! Then, beyond Clinton bunga bunga+ing someone else and lying about it and getting impeached for itz Trump PAID OFF the female he"d screwed with a non-disclosure clause to keep her quiet! I could go on...
     
  7. mw2530

    mw2530 Well-Known Member

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    I never said that I agreed with everything Trump has did or said. I said that media bias in coverage of stories and democrat politicians behavior played a role in him being elected. Your response was to make a long list of claims about Trump. You didn't really address many of the points I made. You did speak some about media bias - I don't deny there is bias coverage on both sides. I never said there wasn't. But the majority leans liberal - CNN, NBC, ABC, CNBC, Yahoo, etc. I don't watch late night comedy, because last time I did half the show consisted of bashing the President. I get that all Presidents have gotten made fun of on these type of shows, but it's been taken to a new level now. Do you disagree with my statement that many Americans feel unheard and underrepresented due to lack of coverage of real problems they are facing? Or that pursing wealth is an indicator of a cold person? Or that one's political affiliation makes them a racist or sexist person? Or that corporations are inherently evil? Because these are the types of ideas that are floated around by certain media outlets.

    I'd argue that the strongest form of media bias lies within WHAT type of stories are covered and discussed. Many people can see through bias in a story, but they won't be able to recognize when a story isn't being covered. For example, why is the massive garbage cleanup efforts in the Pacific Ocean getting very little coverage?

    I want to provide an example of the misleading coverage that I have encountered. I read an article earlier this year regarding federal income tax refunds and how they were lower this past tax season than in previous years. This was a true statement - refunds were lower. But the article made it as if that meant most people paid more in taxes than prior to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. When in reality, the amount of refund has little to do with how much a person pays in tax. The fact of the matter is that the vast majority of taxpayers received a tax cut as a result of the new law. There were some exceptions, but paying more wasn't the norm. Refunds were down primarily due to changes in the amount of taxes that were withheld from worker's wages on their behalf. The article did a poor job explaining this aspect, and likely left many readers mislead into believing that most people did not receive a tax cut.
     
  8. SteveNomad

    SteveNomad Active Member

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    ...Well, pretty much everything I said about Trump was a fact, not a " claim ".Yes, a lot of people felt overlooked - Trump is the remedy for that? How did media " claim pursuit of wealth makes you a bad person " and " corporations are evil "?.And voting for Trump struck back against that.
    I'm certainly aware that there's a lot of declining towns where the jobs went away long ago - Is Trump going to turn the clock back to 1979? I don't think so (I guess he did a couple of highly publicized getting-a-factory-to-stay, at least in part, actions. However, I'm not to sure they weren't, at least in part, reversed/reduced after the cameras went away, or offset by other hardly " worker's friend " activities by Trump. I'm not too knowledgeable in this, though, and I've made this a parenthesis to reflect that.) How are coal miners helped by having regulations in mines loosened so more if them can be killed & crippled? Trump has a lengthy list of people who worked for him claiming he chiseled)cheated them, I believe. The ongoing assault by most?? if the Republicans (& some Democrats??) on unions since Reagan has a lot to do with certain jobs' decline, also!
    I grant that, from what little I've seen, late-night comedy shows have become sort of overly focused in Trump criticism. Well, things have become polarized these days...and the RushTiwnhall-type conservative media, which does not claim to be comedy, certainly tends to rant on endlessly about how great Trump.
    Frankly, Trump lies so much - Yes, all politicians lie/mislead, but Trump REALLY pushes it to the throttle - and does outrageous things SO much that people who call him on it can't but come off as scolds.
     
  9. mw2530

    mw2530 Well-Known Member

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    There isn't any purpose to continuing to debate when we will never agree. I just challenge you to listen to some of Trump's speeches firsthand. For example, today's speech he made on veterans day. From the portion I watched, he was not divisive, but respectful and unifying.
     
  10. SteveNomad

    SteveNomad Active Member

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    ...Goody. He actually managed to do a decent speech on a major holiday. He manages something competent)okay from time to time, I grant. Whoopee Doo. Congressional Medal of Honor for that! Rather low setting of the bar for him, I think.
     
  11. puzzlingbill

    puzzlingbill Definitely Someone

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    Trump, as President, continues to be who he's always been. He succeeded in the shark tank of New York real estate because of who he is. He's famous for being surrounded by people who will let him do whatever he wants - his famous tag line is "You're fired".

    As President, he is subject to limitations that are written in the Constitution. The Founding Fathers knew that if you could get rich by holding public office, there would be a lot of people who would seek public office for just that reason, who would not put the country first. That's the reason for the emoluments clause in the Constitution. Trump has been steering federal business to his properties since he took office in clear violation. He claims he put his assets in a trust, but he's the sole beneficiary of that trust. When asked about the emoluments clause by a reporter, Trump responded as if it were a joke or fake news. Not part of the document he is sworn to uphold.

    You can't invite foreign countries to mess around in our elections. That's one step short of helping another country invade us. Damn right that was a valid topic for investigations. Trump wanted to fire Mueller - his staff had to tell him he couldn't.

    The swashbuckling, godfather-like style that served him well in NY real estate, is completely inappropriate for a US President. He only tells the truth when it serves his purpose - the President is sworn to adhere to a higher standard. The House members have the Constitutional right to investigate foreign influence in our government - Trump wants to throw them in jail.

    The other big part of the problem is the toxic state of politics ATM. Most of the right-wing media will accept anything Trump says without challenging it. Fox news has a whole stable of commentators who can blame any problem in the world on the Democrats. The Trump campaign is spending $1 million a week to run ads on Facebook that are LIES about the Bidens. The same party that got so bent out of shape about Bill Clinton having sex with an intern has made excuses for a stunning array of illegal acts. Inside the Trump bubble, he's never wrong, and it's always someone else's fault.

    You can't have a meaningful debate about politics if you can't agree on reality.
     
  12. AloneNotLonely

    AloneNotLonely Well-Known Member

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    There is no right-wing mainstream media, hahahaha. Fox is centrist at best, they are just conservative/republican and you conflate that with right-wing.
     
  13. puzzlingbill

    puzzlingbill Definitely Someone

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    Fox is centrist? That's exactly my point. You have no idea what a centrist really is - you're just parroting something you heard on social media. Trump violated the Constitution. When his staff told him you can't do that, he got on Twitter and claimed there was a sinister plot to thwart him. Fox, because they support him, bought his explanation. It's all BS. Trump thinks there's a sinister plot when someone says No to him. He's taken advantage of the fact that there's no fact checking on social media to spread his lies.
     
  14. Wolf Prince

    Wolf Prince My future job title.

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    He be Trumpen. Lol.
     
  15. SteveNomad

    SteveNomad Active Member

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    ...Returning to my headin' how might Trump lose or win in 2020?
    For reasons he might win, I've seen a proposal that he might get another popular loss but electoral victory. Incumbency is generally an advantage, of course - However, I have read that Obama's 2012 victory was with a lesser margin than 3098, I presume that yhsy'd trur.
     
  16. SteveNomad

    SteveNomad Active Member

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    ...I meant" lesser margin than 2008 " above:mad:!
     
  17. Nervous Rex

    Nervous Rex High-functioning autistic V.I.P Member

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    Here is one of the most comprehensive surveys of media sources and their biases:

    Media Bias Chart
     
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  18. SteveNomad

    SteveNomad Active Member

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    ... From my scanning of the initial page - My suspicion meter goes up simply because of the use of the phrase " fake news " there. The mere serious use of that phrase makes me think someone is Trumpist/similar since Trump/similar simply use it to mean " anything I don't like ", tho Trump's base, etc. seem to swallow it 100%. KSince they seem to claim " We don't take truth of stories into account " - Well, to me, inaccuracy would be one thing that could justify the term " fake news ".
    They make a thing of " We only rate online content, not print content". Huh:confused:? Any written publication is the totality of what appears - and the print version tends to be the " final " version! And a lot of content I the print version will be only briefly available online, or anyway only available to paid subscribers, even maybe to subscribers to the print version. Do they rate only the free material.
    The element of " taking input from users " certainly could leave their final result open to trolling/" voting up-down "/what I guess could be called the Rotten Tomatoes effect!!!!:confused:
     
  19. SteveNomad

    SteveNomad Active Member

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    ...As far as ways the non-Trump candidate - presumably a Democrat - could win - Do you think a Never Trump Republican such as Evan McMullin in 2016, but with more preperation and money, and on the ballot in more states than McMullin was could help the Democrat, giving more traditional Republicans who could not bear to vote for someone to vote for at the top of the ticket while they voted for Republicans below that candidate? Or would that take away enough votes by such people for the Democrat that Trump would win?
    I have thought that it would be - interesting - if Trump received a popular plurality, anyway but lost Electorally, as Hillary - and Al Gore - did. Would his supporters make a big fuss? Even be violent, maybe even with Trump encouragement, for a worst scenario? Short of that, would Fix, Trump, etc. howl forever about this, forgetting the conservative defences of the EC after 2000 and 2016? And, conversely, would lefti-er voices suddenly discover that the EC was neat:D?
    The comment gas been made about regional polarization nowadays - Red areas becoming redder, blue ones bluer. What WOULD the reaction from some, say, Wyoming or Missisippi Trump fans to a popular win, EC loss?
    A ways ago I read a memoir by Barry Goldwater he write late in his career. Himself of course seen as a very strong conservative, I recall a comment in his book in which, I suppose speaking of how the Senate would work, he said something that seemed to reflect an assumption that most states would have a more conservative senator and a more liberal senator - either a Rep and a Dem or, if just from one party, from different wings within the part, I guess. There used to be a fair amount more " conservative Democrats " and " liberal Republicans " - now they would be denounced as DINOs and RINOs;)!
    As far as party affiliation goes, anyway, perhaps someone here could check out how the 60s and 70s stacked up on variation within state delegations versus the last two decades? The point's been made, too, IIRC, that state legislatures used to more frequently have a pattern of the State Assembly going one way and the State Senate another - I think New York State's leg., for example, did.
     
  20. Nitro

    Nitro Admin/Immoral Turpitude Staff Member Admin V.I.P Member

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    How do I think the next election will work out?
    We will probably have to see how it ends on election day.
     
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