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Brexit

Discussion in 'Politics Discussion' started by Onna, Nov 26, 2018.

  1. Onna

    Onna Well-Known Member

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    Hi all, I’m curious if anyone has done any prepping for a ‘no deal’ Brexit?

    So I feel pretty silly asking, but, some accounts on Twitter are very expressive on how devastating a potential no deal Brexit will be. To the point that they’re stocking up on tinned foods. Should we be doing the same? I understand that most people consider it ‘scaremongering’ but you do get presented with so called facts that show it could be wise to prep?!

    Figuring out the logistics of Brexit... the wording in legal documents, and the complex web on links to operations, is my worst nightmare (hence why I didn’t vote in the first place) how could I have possibly voted for something I don’t and wouldn’t have had time to understand! That alone makes me regret abstaining.

    Anyway I know there’s bound to be people on here who will have it more sussed out than me, what are your opinions please?
     
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  2. Autistamatic

    Autistamatic He's just this guy, you know? V.I.P Member

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    One thing's for sure - a lot of things are going to get more expensive, though which things is anybody's guess. Whilst the deal currently on the table isn't one I can get behind and seems destined to be voted down, it is somewhat softer than many of the alternatives and should cushion the blow. The Pound is bound to tank after ANY kind of brexit so we'll likely be looking at price hikes on fuel/energy and any imported items - which with the state of our farms and manufacturing over here, is a hell of a lot!
    I'm not sure if stockpiling is worthwhile, I'm not doing so but our store cupboards are usually pretty full anyway. The one exception is meds. We've made sure that we've got a couple of months of meds we rely on backed up just in case, but other than that we'll just be weathering the storm with everyone else (apart from Jacob Rees Mogg who will be buying every failing company and distressed asset he can lay hands on so he can sell them on for massive profit to foreign investors like the evil little troll he is!)
     
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  3. Judge

    Judge Well-Known Member V.I.P Member

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    That's a really good question. At times it seems the politics of the Brexit is all the media talks about, as opposed to the possible consequences that could be rapidly approaching and impacting the day-to-day lives of British citizens.

    Up to now Britain has been like any other EU member state, on the inside, looking out. Without a sense of being mistreated as an outsider both economically and politically. Yet in observing how rigidly the EU is negotiating with Britain about its exit from the EU, it has become abundantly clear not to expect any sense of cordiality in the process other than that being negotiated to avoid that "hard" Brexit- one with no deal. Where a post-Brexit EU may economically treat a sovereign Britain as a "bastard stepchild".

    And with all the headlines reflecting the likelihood that Parliament is in fact not going to support the May government, rejecting a Brexit with this proposed "deal". And with the alternatives of the possibility of a general election in which a Labour government claims to be able to negotiate much better terms for a much better Brexit. Or the possibility of what many regard as "political heresy" in a constitutional monarchy, to hold a second referendum with the possibility of Britain voiding the Brexit altogether. Something the EU and anti-Brexiteers would no doubt welcome.

    Getting back to your basic question, if I were a citizen of Great Britain, I would be saving as much cash as is possible, given the harsh economic possibilities of a Brexit with no deal. Potentially made worse for much of anyone following the precarious nature of the global economy, which may be poised for recession in the coming year, along with equities transitioning towards a "bear market". All of which could stifle Britain's economy in attempting total independence. In essence, some really hard times might be just around the corner.
     
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  4. Autistamatic

    Autistamatic He's just this guy, you know? V.I.P Member

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    I think the factor that leaves a bitter taste in many people's mouths is that the referendum in 2016 was never, at any point, a legally binding decision. It was purely advisory. In effect it was no more than an opinion poll done on a grand scale.
    The response by our joke of a government was for their leader to resign the very next day only to be replaced by the only candidate left in the race after all the others had withdrawn their candidacy. They have since treated the referendum result as if it was a "hands tied" situation that couldn't be avoided whilst spouting the phrase "the will of the people" at every opportunity.
    Ironically, polls are now showing that the trend has reversed, especially noted in the constituencies of the leading Brexiteer politicians which are now polling distinctly remain sentiments now that the reeality is sinking in.

    Poll reveals the majority of Brexiteers' constituents would now vote Remain

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.n...zyn6cwnsqt/PeoplesVote_waves1,2,3_Merge_w.pdf
     
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  5. Onna

    Onna Well-Known Member

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    I’ve repeatedly hinted to my sister for us to switch to a fixed rate tariff, but she’s not quite getting the message :(
     
  6. Mary Terry

    Mary Terry Well-Known Member V.I.P Member

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    I agree with Judge. Stockpile cash in case things take a turn for the worst.

    You could stock up on some foods that have a long shelf life such as dried beans and rice, but there's no point in doing that unless you are really going to eat them. Because I live in the southern US where we have terrible hurricanes and storms that can knock out the electricity for days, if not weeks, I keep some durable food supplies on hand - dried beans, rice, canned goods - and we have a gas generator to keep our refrigerators, freezer, and HVAC system running during power outages.

    I also always get a lot of cash, small denominations, to keep on hand whenever we are threatened by hurricanes, and fill up all our vehicles with gasoline because no electricity means no gas pumping, no cash registers, no computers for credit cards, etc. It helps to have some food on hand in case the grocery stores are shut down. But my weather situation is always acute whereas your situation could be a long, drawn out, slow financial decline with escalating food and fuel prices.
     
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  7. Autistamatic

    Autistamatic He's just this guy, you know? V.I.P Member

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    That's exactly what we're doing. We were looking at it earlier on today in fact. We're looking at a rate a little higher than we currently pay but fixed for two years. Should help us ride things out if/when they get bumpy.
     
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  8. Judge

    Judge Well-Known Member V.I.P Member

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    It does make me wonder whether the average Briton really understands the significance of being given the opportunity to directly participate in referendums and plebiscites. An awesome privilege that many of us existing within traditional republics simply don't have.

    On this side of the pond, on any issue pertinent to the nation and federal republic, we rely exclusively on the wisdom of our elected representatives. Which may rely on a perceived consensus of their constituencies, or a representative's personal wisdom, and whatever outside forces may influence such decisions. However "we the people", are totally left out of such an equation, and quite deliberately. We vote for representatives and parties at formal elections, but not policy itself on a national level.

    To me this is an awesome responsibility placed on the average citizen. In many instances where it may be their one opportunity to influence national policy in the most profound of manners. Not something to be taken lightly- ever.

    Though personally, if my country ever had national referendums like this, I'd prefer for them to be driven by a requirement of a two-thirds majority to pass.
     
    Last edited: Nov 26, 2018
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  9. Onna

    Onna Well-Known Member

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    Absolutely, it seems a bit of a set up to be honest. I find it difficult to believe that our government (as incompetent as they are) were so truly incompetent, that they’d even allow such a vote, without knowing and sharing the full consequences with the public! It’s quite unbelievable.
    And I don’t believe anyone in my social group who states that they knew EXACTLY what those consequences would be, particularly when professional economists weren’t even able to comprehend the full extent individually, it seems the bigger picture has only emerged through networking over the past two years.
    Anyway let me not go there!
     
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  10. Onna

    Onna Well-Known Member

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    I’m not sure if it’s just my age, but I don’t recall a time that we were given a say in such a big decision so recklessly.
     
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  11. Autistamatic

    Autistamatic He's just this guy, you know? V.I.P Member

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    Referendums are only held in the UK when the government of the time is unwilling to commit on an issue that could backfire on them and they do their best to rig them in their favour. It's a simple (but expensive) method of washing their hands Pontius Pilate style.
    We've had two referendums here under the current Tory embarrassment - one on voting reform which was rigged heavily in their favour by offering an alternative worse than the existing system rather than PR which is what people wanted, and the second was equally heavily rigged but backfired on them.
    Unfortunately, these votes do not happen for the right reasons. The Brexit vote was held purely to stop the Tories from haemorrhaging potential voters in UKIPs direction. They never thought there was any possibility of losing hence why Cameron scuttled off the day after. The 2011 voting reform referendum was held because the Tories had to go into coalition with the Lib-Dems in 2010. The referendum was a condition of the coalition because it has long been a Lib-Dem flagship policy. They had no choice so they held it "in name only" by not offering a viable alternative.
    The last UK-wide referendum before 2011 was in 1975 which was also about membership of the EU. We voted more than 2 to 1 to remain back then. There have been others in the UK but restricted to particular regions and mainly related to devolution.
    As you so rightly noted @Judge - the Brexit vote was carried by protest votes and people with very dubious priorities and prejudices. Many people who voted leave, or remain did so in full knowledge and made a considered decision, but most just decided on the day. A third didn't vote at all. I always say that if you don't know both how and why you are voting a particular way, it's best not to, but I encourage anybody who IS certain to do so. I remember people asking me at work which way they should vote because they didn't understand what they were voting on. Sad :(
     
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  12. Judge

    Judge Well-Known Member V.I.P Member

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    Excellent metaphor in this instance. :eek:
     
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  13. Onna

    Onna Well-Known Member

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    So a Brexit checklist:

    Fixed tariff energy;
    Save cash;
    Possible canned food;

    How about credit cards/loans? I’m assuming interest rates will also be affected when the pound drops?
     
  14. Autistamatic

    Autistamatic He's just this guy, you know? V.I.P Member

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    I don't do credit anyway. No credit cards and no loans. I have an overdraft if I need it but I haven't gone into it in years :)
    The possibility of an interest rate hike is definitely there, but there is as much of a chance that the BofE rate will remain low rather than hamper the economy any further. Credit card companies are another matter though. They set their own rates so it could rocket, but equally, if people tighten their belts come Brexit, as is quite likely, they may well be slashing their rates before long to try to bring lost business back in.
    As for the food thing - it doesn't hurt to have some emergency supplies in like cans and dried food - food bank kind of fare but I wouldn't overdo it. If you don't need it after all you'll still have to eat it ;)
     
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  15. Judge

    Judge Well-Known Member V.I.P Member

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    Personally I just have great difficulty with the consideration of any referendum designed solely to reverse the vote of a first referendum. That it fundamentally degrades any democracy apart from the whole point of a referendum itself.

    And that if a second referendum can undo the results of a first one, why not a third, fourth or fifth referendum accordingly? It breeds a sense of anarchy within the body politic. Which is why such sentiments should never be considered, IMO.

    52% of Britain's electorate agreed to such a radical change, for better or worse.
     
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  16. Judge

    Judge Well-Known Member V.I.P Member

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    Ominous warning from the Bank of England over the possibility of a "No-deal Brexit". Yet while the government and the EU have come to an agreement, it still appears questionable that Parliament will formally approve of it. With lots of legislative dissent in the air...starting with Northern Irish Unionists.

    "The Bank of England has warned the pound would crash, inflation soar, interest rates would have to rise and Britain’s growth would plummet in the event of a no deal disorderly Brexit."

    Bank of England issues stark warning over no deal Brexit - BelfastTelegraph.co.uk
     
    Last edited: Nov 28, 2018
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  17. Judge

    Judge Well-Known Member V.I.P Member

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  18. Onna

    Onna Well-Known Member

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    Hmm
    “Owners of frozen and chilled storage space say they are fully booked until the middle of next year. And the government has had to request more secure storage for medication be built after it discovered that an order for all drugmakers to hold six weeks of supply could not be met”.

    I hope they manage to get it built!
     
  19. Judge

    Judge Well-Known Member V.I.P Member

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    European markets have all declined dramatically. (FTSE markets down some 3%) Take your pick:

    Downward momentum of US markets (Dow is down 700 points today) and confidence for May's Tory government passing their deal for the Brexit isn't looking good at all.

    A "sea" of red ink across the globe:

    International Markets Home - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com
     
    Last edited: Dec 6, 2018
  20. Judge

    Judge Well-Known Member V.I.P Member

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