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Brexit "Deal" Dependent On "Irish Backstop" ?

Discussion in 'Politics Discussion' started by Judge, Nov 20, 2018.

  1. Judge

    Judge Well-Known Member

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    What a mess. If May is truly bent on selling a Brexit deal to Britain based on this "Irish Backstop" plan, it appears the Democratic Unionist Party is prepared to vote against the deal. Small wonder that retaining Northern Ireland as an autonomous trade zone to minimize trade concerns with the Republic of Ireland would do two things:

    1) Make a mockery of the very intent to politically and economically separate from the EU.

    2) Enhance the possibility of reunification of Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland. With Scottish separatists watching it all very closely with similar intent. Not so much to part from Britain, but reunite economically with the EU.

    Meanwhile it appears that Spain is intending to use the Brexit vote as an EU member as a means to leverage their claims over Gibraltar. No telling how much lobbying Spain may be doing at the moment to encourage other EU member states to vote against the Brexit.

    So much negative political momentum going on, despite an urgency by May and Juncker to effect this deal. And little hope of Britain being able to negotiate much of anything else.

    It all seems to make the Brexit little more than one huge circular argument. One that could eventually reduce Great Britain to merely England and Wales. If that worse case scenario were to happen, would the Brexit still be worth it in the hearts and minds of the English people? While preposterous, the notion of a second referendum to undo so much carnage must be weighing on many minds.

    Though with the EU putting so much resistance against Britain from leaving, it also reflects how the EU is in fact operating more like a federation, and not batting an eye at aggressively attempting to reel in Britain like a disobedient child. If not the whole of it, then parts of it.

    Meanwhile global markets are faltering. Not a very good commerce climate for a potentially independent Britain to be facing in 2019. All under a looming possibility of a general election to effect regime change. Would the Labour Party simply "unload" Northern Ireland and allow reunification with the Republic of Ireland?

    Political and economic "Catch-22". Unless maybe for "Chuckie". Nationalists may have hope in it all, but in the meantime none of this has been kind to Ireland's stock market.

    Northern Irish kingmakers send UK PM May a warning over Brexit deal | Reuters

    Q&A: The Irish border Brexit backstop
     
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2018
  2. Autistamatic

    Autistamatic He's just this guy, you know? V.I.P Member

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    If you ask me, the EU have accepted that Brexit is 99% likely to happen, and "no deal" is what the current regime is aiming for, but they have already agreed a more mutually beneficial deal with Corbyn and McDonnell. It's on the public record but not reported by the mainstream media, including Reuters.
    The "backstop" is, as you say, a mockery of the expectations of Brexit, but it would not be necessary if a functional agreement had been negotiated In the first place.
    The Tories WANT no deal because they will profit from it, but they are desperate to suggest they were forced into it rather than engineered it by choice.
    It's a f...ing shambles, as you say. Bring on the "no confidence" vote, get that useless woman out and let's have a GE so a REAL political force can take control and guide us to a better society.
     
  3. Judge

    Judge Well-Known Member

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    Interesting. It does seem inevitable that a general election is going to evoke regime change. Where the EU can renegotiate after the fact if need be. Though you'd think the DUP would be more supportive of May given the political alternatives posed by the Labour Party coming back into power. Or do you think the DUP is essentially just bluffing with the May administration?

    I also can't help but wonder just how much of this resistance on the part of the EU is being generated from Dublin versus Berlin and Paris. The EU may accept the Brexit as being inevitable, but it may not preclude them from getting their pound of flesh in the process. Which might eventually mean Northern Ireland and Scotland. But would a new Labour government go along with that?

    The irony of it all to me is that I don't see the European Union itself lasting indefinitely. As damaging as the Brexit may prove to be, Britain may still ultimately be ahead of the curve in the long term.
     
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2018
  4. Autistamatic

    Autistamatic He's just this guy, you know? V.I.P Member

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    Yes and no. The DUP are the only thing propping up the May regime right now. The Tories have no majority but the "confidence and supply" agreement (at a cost of £1Billion) has kept them off the edge. The DUP a day or two ago abstained from all the Tory budget votes and even supported Labour on one of them. It was a warning shot across the boughs.
    The so-called Brexit deal May has presented is very unlikely to pass through Parliament. She's threatening that that will mean "no deal" or "no Brexit".
    She thinks we're all fools, including her own, desperate to cling on to power party. Some of us are fools, but not all of us. The game for them as it stands is to avoid a Corbyn led Government at all costs in their eyes. He and his ilk is will make life less easy for the rich to keep hiding their money offshore and make huge dents in ancestral privilege.
     
  5. Judge

    Judge Well-Known Member

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    I just wish I could be that "fly on the wall" to hear whether or not the Labour Party may be willing to let go of Northern Ireland in pursuit of a smoother transition without being in an uncertain agreement with the EU. To be able to cut all ties, yet leave on a positive note in as much as is possible and still be entirely independent of the European Union once and for all.

    Makes me wonder if Theresa May has been quoting Al Pacino in "The Godfather III".

     
  6. Autistamatic

    Autistamatic He's just this guy, you know? V.I.P Member

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    The proposal Labour have already put forward (and also proposed by the EU separately) negates the need for a backstop and allows for the borders to stay as they are. There would be no question of letting NI go.
    We would enter into a new, revised customs union with the EU ensuring regulatory synchrony on goods and services but freeing us from some of the restrictions. The priority for Labour is to preserve the good things that have come out of Europe like consumer protection, employee protection and environmental progress whilst allowing the UK the economic freedom to break away from the crippling ideology of neoliberalism.
     
  7. Judge

    Judge Well-Known Member

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    Personally I suspect an actual end agreement may not be so amicable for Britain as what may be presently proposed by either side. After all, the EU must somehow keep up the appearance of maintaining an upper hand regarding any and all member states who may eventually seek to leave the EU. And the EU will take a big hit with Britain eventually leaving. Especially given the timing of Italy's economic problems along with the general perception of a global economic slowdown next year.

    President Macron's message about patriotism versus nationalism wasn't really meant for Donald Trump personally. IMO that was a message aimed directly at those member states who may be contemplating leaving the EU as well. Ultimately I just don't see the EU being quite so accommodating as your party intends. But at least in principal it sounds like a more viable plan compared to what is happening in real time with the Tories.

    Though it also seems likely that maintaining stable commerce between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland on the EU's terms still leaves the Good Friday Agreement intact, which perhaps remains the best catalyst for eventually unifying Ireland once and for all through peaceful and democratic means.

    Jeremy Corbyn backs reunification of Ireland as he heads to Belfast for first official visit

    As for any perception of "economic freedom", is that a realistic goal with a portion of your economy left in control by foreign interests? I'm afraid such a question leaves us coming full circle about the original intent of the Brexit in the first place. Made potentially worse with economic havoc created if the most influential nations of the EU itself continues a shift to the political right.

    Is Europe seeing a nationalist surge?

    The right is rising and social democracy is dying across Europe – but why? | Josef Joffe

    The rise of European populism and the collapse of the center-left
     
    Last edited: Nov 22, 2018
  8. Autistamatic

    Autistamatic He's just this guy, you know? V.I.P Member

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    The biggest boost to economic freedom is no longer being shackled to the European Monetary system and being able to take back control of our infrastructure from foreign governments and investors. Under EU law we are forbidden to do so. Most of the EU was sensible enough not to privatise their national industries and services in the first place so theirs are still doing pretty well. We sold everything off to the highest bidder so the Chinese, The Saudis and half the governments of Europe have huge financial stakes in our country's vital services. Taking back control of them will boost our economy far more than any trade deal Trump or anyone else might be willing to offer.
    As for reunification of Ireland, I'm personally all for it providing the unionists are kept under control. It'll be a lot easier than getting the Vulcans and Romulans working together.
     
  9. Judge

    Judge Well-Known Member

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    Couldn't agree more. An issue our country grapples with as well. Though there's great irony in China taking on an absurd amount of our debt. Where it can be leveraged against them with far greater consequences for China than the US in the event of a "hostile default" on such debt.

    Whew...that's what we call the "$64,000 question".

    Would unionists ultimately decide to vote with their head and pocketbook and remain part of the EU, or would they go with their heart waging their own guerilla war with no hope of unity with Britain?
     
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  10. Judge

    Judge Well-Known Member

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    Interesting article on possible political outcomes of how Parliament may vote for or against the present Brexit "deal" along with speculating various scenarios if the deal isn't accepted.

    What happens if MPs reject Brexit deal?
     
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  11. Autistamatic

    Autistamatic He's just this guy, you know? V.I.P Member

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    I read that article earlier. Whilst it's still subject to the BBC's usual pro establishment bias, it still conveys quite well the way our illustrious leader (LOL) has painted herself and her party into a corner.
     
  12. Judge

    Judge Well-Known Member

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    Indeed. - "Into a corner". I don't see how they can emerge politically whole from this.



    Leaving so many voters, so scundered.
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2018
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  13. Autistamatic

    Autistamatic He's just this guy, you know? V.I.P Member

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    I think there are new metaphors for "hubris" and "desperation" brewing that may go much further than these isles. Dark times indeed :(
     
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  14. Judge

    Judge Well-Known Member

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  15. Autistamatic

    Autistamatic He's just this guy, you know? V.I.P Member

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    The "backstop" is non negotiable. The EU has made it clear from day one that if the UK is going to abandon freedom of goods, services and movement, the backstop is essential. What has got so many Brexiteers so upset and why they plan to vote against their own party's deal is that the backstop (should it be required, and it likely will) is open ended and can only be ceased if both the UK and EU agree, thereby creating a stalemate.
    The only way to avoid it is to relax some of the "red lines" the Tories drew for themselves. She clearly hopes she can convince the EU to allow us to end it on our terms without their approval, and I can't see that happening.
     
  16. Judge

    Judge Well-Known Member

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    Apparently neither does Angela Merkel or the Reich. Er uh...the European Union. Clearly Theresa May is being politically pushed into a corner. And all this before a vote by a presumably hostile British Parliament.

    Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide, Madame Prime Minister.

    After May asks for help, Germany's Merkel says no more Brexit negotiations

    After May asks for help, Germany's Merkel says no more Brexit negotiations | Reuters
     
    Last edited: Dec 11, 2018
  17. Autistamatic

    Autistamatic He's just this guy, you know? V.I.P Member

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  18. Judge

    Judge Well-Known Member

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    Hit it, Martha!

     
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  19. Autistamatic

    Autistamatic He's just this guy, you know? V.I.P Member

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    This is hilarious :)

     
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