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A failure of Bayesian inference

DuckRabbit

Well-Known Member
Does anyone know about the perceptual symptoms of autism being described in terms of a failure of Bayesian inference? This is linked to the "aberrant precision account of autism" which holds that in autism there may be "a failure to attenuate sensory precision and contextualise sensory information in an optimal fashion".

Has anyone studied this theory of autism? If so, does it hold any water? Is it just another way of saying that ASD individuals have reduced context sensitivity? I thought this was linked with ASD individuals making more consistent decisions and being less susceptible to marketing ploys. If correct, the language used to describe these theories ("a failure", "aberrant") seems more pejorative than it needs to be (assuming a deficit in perceptual abilities rather than that the autistic brain might be supercharged and hyperfunctional).
 
Very interesting! But is it a failure or advance? There are also theories that we are advancing.
 
Very interesting! But is it a failure or advance? There are also theories that we are advancing.
A good point. It seems cognitive and neurological differences can be framed pejoratively or positively, depending on one's unconscious need to project defects or merely difference onto groups of people in society. Below are some ongoing attempts to understand a Bayesian explanation of perception in ASC individuals (ASC = Autistic Spectrum Condition).

Pellicano and Burr's (2012) Bayesian explanation of autistic perception

Some tenets of the theory
* People with autism see the world more accurately – as it really is.
* Autistic children make less use of prior information.
* The formal, computational principles of a Bayesian framework offer a way of [METAPHOR FOR?] identifying the causal mechanisms of altered autistic perception.

Bayesian decision theory refers to a decision theory which is informed by Bayesian probability. Bayesian decision theory is a principled description of the processes that enable observers to derive the most probable interpretations of their environment. It is a statistical system that tries to quantify the trade-off between various decisions, making use of probabilities and costs. For example, if we knew someone's age, we would be more accurate in estimating the probability that they have cancer. An agent operating under such a decision theory uses the concepts of Bayesian statistics to estimate the expected value of its actions, and update its expectations based on new information. These agents can and are usually referred to as estimators.

It has long been known that perceptual processing is unusual in autism. Similarly, it has been observed that in autistic individuals, the cerebral is whole and intact, but the physical is usually not of good service (William Stillman).

Areas where ASC individuals show exceptional cognitive strengths:
* on the Embedded Figures Test, finding hidden figures (e.g., a triangle) within larger meaningful drawings (e.g., a pram).
* less susceptible to illusions; less susceptibility to visual illusions.
* the prevalence of absolute pitch e.g., ‘naming the pitch of the ‘‘pop’’ of a cork’.
* enhanced performance on visual search tasks.
* superior visual discrimination.
* ability to process fine details.
* better discrimination abilities compared to typical individuals.
* an ability to show highly focused attention.
* privileged access to parts and details; an excellent eye for detail.
* better at copying impossible figures.
* are more accurate when asked to reproduce a slanted circle (ellipse) in the absence of perspective cues.

Pellicano and Burr (2012) argue that ASC individuals have less previous knowledge to colour or skew the probability of knowing something i.e., they aren't very 'Bayesian'. These authors link this difference to embodied cognition differences: "It is not sensory processing itself that is different in autism, but the interpretation of sensory input to yield percepts."

Just as we see in the Farmer, Baron-Cohen and Skylark (2017) paper ('People With Autism Spectrum Conditions Make More Consistent Decisions'), that ASC individuals are less influenced by decoy options when selecting target options, so priors improve the efficiency of computations by reducing overall noise or error.

Pellicano and Burr (2012): "[...] autistic people tend to perceive the world more accurately as a consequence of hypo-priors or reduced bias by prior experience, a notion that fits well with extant empirical data." (p. 509)
"[...] the possibility that the non-social symptoms of autism might be attributable to fundamental differences in sensation and perception" (p. 504)
The hypo-priors mean that ASC individuals experience everything afresh, rather than mediated by prior knowledge and expectations. (p. 508)

A nuance: Pellicano and Burr (2012) are not saying that individuals with autism have no priors but rather that their priors are broader. This means that they have fewer internal constraints on perception – that is, hypo-priors. Their theory is that hypo-priors should sometimes result in more ‘accurate’ perception.

Bayesian priors sacrifice accuracy (understood as average closeness to physical reality) for improved precision (reliability), resulting in an overall reduction of error. So the perceptions of autistic people are more accurate but overall less reliable?

Evaluation of this theory
How easy it would be to interpret this difference from the norm as a defect or failure (e.g., "ASC individuals fail in the process of contextual meaning and prior knowledge" or "a failure to attenuate sensory precision and contextualise sensory information in an optimal fashion"... "Often they do not understand situations or contexts they have already seen before", "ASC individuals lack a priori beliefs about the world"). (Similarly, of the finding that 'People With Autism Spectrum Conditions Make More Consistent Decisions', some people refuse to accept that this might be a positive trait --- instead of calling ASC thinking "more rational", they prefer to call it "more rigid").

However Pellicano and Burr (2012) frame this difference more positively: "people with autism see the world more accurately – as it really is – as a consequence of being less biased by prior experiences." i.e., it seems that ASC individuals are not distracted as much as neurotypical individuals are by context and previous assumptions (does this include meanings and value-judgements?). But might this be associated with the non-social symptoms in autism – the weaknesses and the strengths? e.g., perhaps a detail-focused processing style causes the characteristic ‘insistence on sameness’, including adherence to routines and an aversion to unexpected and unpredictable events, as well as sensory atypicalities (such as extreme sensitivity to florescent lighting or to the sound of the school bell).

Linked to this: It has been shown that arousal causes perceptual narrowing, that is, it reduces the range of cues that an organism attends to and uses (Easterbrook, 1959).
 
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Ongoing attempts to understand a Bayesian explanation of perception in ASC individuals (and simply thinking aloud) CONTD.

Implications of this theory
Do these perceptual advantages translate into being less influenced by social and cultural values i.e., more independent minds? But do they also translate into more social and/or communication difficulties? As one autism researcher argues:

"An important question is whether these cognitive strengths provide the key to understanding some of the difficulties for individuals with autism, such as social communication. More specifically, it raises the question of whether the differences in psychological mechanisms which result in exceptional abilities play a causal role in affecting the development of social information processing and language in autism. However, this question can only be tackled by first understanding the mechanisms which cause the cognitive strengths. My research interests currently focus on mechanisms of perception and attention that may be different in autism compared to typical individuals.

The hypo-priors mean that ASC individuals experience everything afresh, rather than mediated by prior knowledge and expectations. It is cognitively tiring to be interpreting everything as if it is relatively new (like functioning without stereotypes). This could be why ASC individuals are more tired out in social situations and make more social and communication errors.

Hypo-priors in autism should cause a greater reliance on bottom-up, incoming sensory signals, which could in turn result in enhancement of sensory stimuli more broadly. Enhanced sensations, or ‘super qualia’ are consistent with the often-reported hypersensitivity to sensory information.

Do ASC individuals function without stereotypic cognitions (or weakened stereotypic cognitions)?
Pellicano and Burr (2012) state: "Without a template [=STEREOTYPE] against which to match observed sensory evidence, the individual is less able to anticipate the forthcoming sensory environment in order to resolve perceptual ambiguity."

Could this be ASC individuals often have different value-judgments from the mainstream e.g., about social status and the social implications of certain utterances, gestures and actions?

"Fewer internal constraints" means that they could say socially inappropriate things and unwittingly offend people and state the truth, without realising that this might leave them socially-emotionally exposed and vulnerable.

Pellicano and Burr (2012): "Sensory symptoms in autism would therefore not be due to fundamental differences in sensory processing per se, but rather reflect atypicalities in the way that incoming information is interpreted by sensory systems."

Research suggests that it is not the judgement process itself that is different in people with ASD, but the way they gather clues in the first place.

PEOPLE WITH AUTISM SEE FACES DIFFERENTLY, CLAIMS STUDY
People with autism see faces differently to their peers – a finding which may explain why they sometimes have difficulty judging facial expressions.
Symptoms of this complex condition vary from person to person but they can revolve around difficulty with social interaction and communication.
The latest discovery could improve understanding of people diagnosed with autism, helping family members, friends and healthcare workers better communicate with them.
Canadian researchers recruited 71 people, 33 people with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and 33 people without the disorder.
The participants were presented 36 pairs of photographic and computer images of emotionally neutral faces. They were asked to indicate which faces appear 'kind' to them.
With the photographic images of neutral faces were presented, the judgement of the participants with ASD were mixed compared to the participants without the disorder.
But the two groups made identical judgments about the computer images of neutral faces.
When the computer image pairs contained less useful judgment clues – such as less pronounced facial features – both groups have difficulty judging the face.
The identical results suggest it is not the judgement process itself that is different in people with ASD, but the way they gather clues in the first place.


If ASC individuals use less stereotypic cognitions, then it is ironic that ASC individuals are the ones diagnosed as showing "stereotypic behaviour" which is "resistant to change"! (Pellicano & Burr (2012): "Hypo-priors might also explain why autistic behaviours can be stereotyped and resistant to change"). Is this the trade-off then?: using stereotypical cognitions helps your behaviour to be less stereotypical and more flexible, whereas non-stereotypical thinking is correlated with more stereotypical behaviour?

Pellicano and Burr (2012): Autistic people may not have a problem with change itself but rather in predicting the change.

As far as I can understand it so far, the above theory does seem to explain:
* strong preference for detail over gestalt
* original, often unique perspective in problem solving
* speaking one’s mind irrespective of social context or adherence to personal beliefs
* a determination to seek the truth
* conversation free of hidden meaning or agenda.
 
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I'm not familiar with this particular theory, but I have a decent understanding of Bayesian statistics and probability.

2 points:
1) This is from 2012 and therefore somewhat dated relative to our understanding of autism
2) It strikes me as a conclusion in search of proof. I.e. They formed the conclusion (ASD used Bayesian processes) and then set out looking for proof of the theory.

In short, I'm not struck particularly by the theory as either reasonable or provable.
 
Great that you understand Bayesian statistics and probability - do you think this is a poor metaphor for understanding autistic perception (both the strengths and weaknesses), where hypo-priors is "a term we use to describe attenuated prior knowledge in autism, which would be represented as a broad prior probability distribution" and non-social symptoms refers to "the range of autistic symptoms including restricted, repetitive patterns of behaviour, interests, or activities, and sensory sensitivities, which are relatively non-social in nature and content"?

1) This is from 2012 and therefore somewhat dated relative to our understanding of autism
Can you elaborate on how our understanding has been updated? e.g., any disproven assumptions in this theory or any theory that explains autistic perception better?

2) It strikes me as a conclusion in search of proof. I.e. They formed the conclusion (ASD used Bayesian processes) and then set out looking for proof of the theory.
So do you reckon the theory is merely descriptive instead of explanatory? i.e., just using a different 'language game' (different metaphors and images) to explain what people have simply observed about autistic perception?
 
There have been various experiments over the years where they give out free money to people.

Nearly everyone refuses. Ie be what's the catch

would that repeat across autistic people,who may use a different form of judgment?
Not so much a socially based one as the experiment uses ie there's no such thing as free money.


One way would be to repeat the experiment with just me accepting the money.
 
There have been various experiments over the years where they give out free money to people.

Nearly everyone refuses. Ie be what's the catch

would that repeat across autistic people,who may use a different form of judgment?
Not so much a socially based one as the experiment uses ie there's no such thing as free money.


One way would be to repeat the experiment with just me accepting the money.
That would be interesting - to see what the different interpretations are and whether some are more socially based and others more 'scientifically' based. Or just with an absence of 'social' thinking about the money i.e., taking it at face-value - "OK, thanks!"
 
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I'll start with (from Wikipedia): "Bayesian statistics, named for Thomas Bayes (1701–1761), is a theory in the field of statistics in which the evidence about the true state of the world is expressed in terms of degrees of belief known as Bayesian probabilities. ... One of the key ideas of Bayesian statistics is that "probability is orderly opinion, and that inference from data is nothing other than the revision of such opinion in the light of relevant new information."

In other words, it is a mathematical methodology that accounts for changes in perceived probable outcomes based on 1) prior information and 2) new information. For lack of a better mathematical model, it is fundamentally how we (humans and other animals) make decisions when outcomes are uncertain.

What this particular theory seems to be examining is the distinction between how "typical" humans make decisions and how those on the spectrum make decisions. However, while "typical" humans can be generalized for statistical purposes, it seems unlikely that the same generalization method would hold for the breadth of the spectrum. This would be one example of how our understanding of ASD has changed since 2012, that generalizing people on the spectrum is mistaken.

As a consequence of this mistaken generalization, the underlying assumption of the theory (that "these characteristics form ASD reasoning") is likely mistaken. In their terms, they are failing to account for their own priors and biases while developing their theory. Except in the most general sense that Bayesian statistics can be used in decision analysis.

Without detailed information and data, what they have is a hypothesis based on out of date information, faulty assumptions, and unrecognized bias. Or that is the way it appears to me, based on the snippets presented here. Perhaps if I read the entire publication I would make a different assessment. But based on my "priors" on these kinds of "theories", I find it improbable that the full text would change my mind.
 
It seems cognitive and neurological differences can be framed pejoratively or positively, depending on one's unconscious need to project defects or merely difference onto groups of people in society.

I dont know how often/how much it's about projection versus how often/how much it is about context -- I think that the differences in ASD can be seen as both useful/helpful/beneficial and harmful/detrimental/hindering (also neutral) at the same time, or as shifting between them depending on the context rather than on personal needs/beliefs/agendas.
 
I dont know how often/how much it's about projection versus how often/how much it is about context -- I think that the differences in ASD can be seen as both useful/helpful/beneficial and harmful/detrimental/hindering (also neutral) at the same time, or as shifting between them depending on the context rather than on personal needs/beliefs/agendas.
Agree. The cognitions of NTs can be useful/helpful/beneficial at times and at other times they can be harmful/detrimental/hindering. Same for the cognitions of ASC individuals. So if a person focuses only on defects and disabilities in ASC individuals in the absence of context and only on functionality and ability in NTs in the absence of context, that to me indicates an unconscious bias (another term for projection, which serves an unconscious emotional purpose - often no more complex than one-upmanship - "I'm superior to you") - what you called personal needs/ beliefs/ agendas. Similarly if someone romanticises or idealises the abilities of ASC individuals and puts down NTs at every turn, that too suggests bias (projection).

Projection was evident to me when the findings of the 2017 study 'People With Autism Spectrum Conditions Make More Consistent Decisions' were presented, and one researcher inferred from the results that ASC thinking is "more rational" whereas another inferred "Or is it just more rigid". Take your pick! Not even empirical evidence can prevent the human psyche from imposing its own value judgements on its meaning. As Carl Jung said:

If you imagine someone who is brave enough to withdraw all his projections, then you get an individual who is conscious of a pretty thick shadow. Such a man has saddled himself with new problems and conflicts. He has become a serious problem to himself, as he is now unable to say that they do this or that, they are wrong, and they must be fought against… Such a man knows that whatever is wrong in the world is in himself, and if he only learns to deal with his own shadow he has done something real for the world. He has succeeded in shouldering at least an infinitesimal part of the gigantic, unsolved social problems of our day.
~ “Psychology and Religion” (1938). In CW 11: Psychology and Religion: West and East. P.140.

Ideally for every paragraph or paper written on ASC, an equal number of words should be written on neurotypical conditions so that we cease to see neurotypicality as the neutral, blameless backdrop against which ASC is measured and found wanting, as a quirky or aberrant anomaly. Both conditions should be problematised and critiqued; both should be celebrated for their respective strengths. Is balance too much to ask for?!;)
 
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Just as we see in the Farmer, Baron-Cohen and Skylark (2017) paper ('People With Autism Spectrum Conditions Make More Consistent Decisions'), that ASC individuals are less influenced by decoy options when selecting target options, so priors improve the efficiency of computations by reducing overall noise or error.
= I don't think I was equating what I thought I was equating here. I was equating decoys with noise and error but the second sentence refers to priors (what NTs have), not hypo-priors (what ASC individuals have). There is some sort of trade-off between accuracy (ASC individuals) and reliability (NTs) I still need to figure out. Meanwhile the relevant passage from Pellicano and Burr (2012):

In general, priors improve the efficiency of computations by reducing overall noise or error. This can be advantageous, even when images are not ambiguous. For example, psychophysical judgments of almost all quantities – length, duration, number, color, weight, force – show the tendency to gravitate towards mean magnitude. This fact has been well known for at least 100 years, but is still not well understood. Recently Jazayeri and Shadlen suggested that central tendency may represent another statistically optimal strategy, incorporating prior knowledge of the statistics of the environment in psychophysical judgments. They suggest that the mean duration (or length, color, or weight) of the recent history acts as a prior, biasing judgments towards the mean. Although judgments are biased (‘inaccurate’), reliability is improved and overall error-rate is reduced. Interestingly, this theoretical approach (supported by clear data) suggests that priors do not need to be learned over a lifetime, but can be modulated over a relatively short timescale, in the order of minutes.

Strong priors are "narrow", weak priors (hypo-priors) are "broad":

Bayesian priors sacrifice accuracy (understood as average closeness to physical reality) for improved precision (reliability), resulting in an overall reduction of error. Under many conditions, strong (narrow) priors can bias perception towards the prior, away from the maximum likelihood based only on sensory information. Hypo-priors in autism should distort sensory signals less, consistent with the often-reported superior performance of autistic individuals. They are, for example, less susceptible to illusions [...]

So NTs have an overall reduction of error, but ASC individuals have reduction of error in specific instances???? Surely there must be a lack of noise or error in ASC responses or how can they be described as "more accurate"?
 
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Thanks for your explanation.
However, while "typical" humans can be generalized for statistical purposes
Can they? Has enough research been done on NT variation? It's been found that males and females have differing strategies for solving the different problems in IQ tests.

As a consequence of this mistaken generalization, the underlying assumption of the theory (that "these characteristics form ASD reasoning") is likely mistaken.
I don't think the theory is completely worthless. To me it makes a lot of intuitive sense to explain the behaviour of ASC individuals by saying they are not invoking the same background information that other people are invoking. This theory is talking about ASC perception and non-social behaviour (repetitive, routine, sensory); what I'm burning up to know is: does this translate into a lack of background information for social and cultural information? NTs simply intuit 'by osmosis' what behaviours mean and what social gestures and communicative acts are required; ASC individuals have to learn these things via painful trial and error. They just don't seem to have the social-political hardwiring for this information to be there 'on its own' like it seems to be for NTs. It seems ASC individuals have to strenuously learn it and even then the learning can be tenuous.
 
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Connectivity theories of autism: Matthew Belmonte (2004)
Our brains have long-range neural connections (e.g., extending from front of brain to back) and short-range connections. ASC individuals have more short-range connections and fewer long-range connections. This could make autistics very methodical but they struggle to see the big picture and understand social situations, which might hinge on more long-range connections.
This theory is disputed by: A theoretical rut: revisiting and critically evaluating the generalized under/over-connectivity hypothesis of autism - Picci - 2016 - Developmental Science - Wiley Online Library
There are always huge methodological issues with these brain studies!:rolleyes:
 
https://www.spectrumnews.org/features/deep-dive/autism-may-stem-problems-prediction/
I find this article for interesting for its presupposition about what the correct amount of perceptual precision is: "Suppose the brain consistently set the precision higher than conditions called for"; "Maybe autism spectrum disorder involves a kind of failure to get that Bayesian balance right [...]".

It also says: "Autism resembles schizophrenia in some ways, Corlett says. Although hearing voices is not common, people on the spectrum have elevated rates of delusions — fixed beliefs they hold in the face of all evidence to the contrary, such as being manipulated by aliens or paranormal forces. Corlett suggests that these delusions occur when sensory data are given too much weight and install a new set of beliefs, which then become lodged in place."
Does anyone think that people on the spectrum have elevated rates of delusions?
Are AS individuals the only ones who hold fixed beliefs in the face of all evidence to the contrary?
 
Are AS individuals the only ones who hold fixed beliefs in the face of all evidence to the contrary?

This leads into various cognitive biases.

I think some of these are social constructions
Ie saving face, stuff like that.
One bias is when given evidence contrary to an existing belief people believe it all the more.

AS, you will be less prone to these biases.

More prone to walk down the wrong road.Meaning we can get lost on our own journey's as we are less open (influenced or isolated from) social ,external influences.

So,one side we win, one side we lose.

The right attitude anyone can start the painful journey of self learning.
Regardless of starting point.

I always considered,as we are usually standing outside , we are in a good position to study social based learning and the biases associated with it.
 
I don't think much of the theory. It's the names, 'Pellicano & Burr'. I don't like them much. Names you don't like are usually wrong.
 

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